Alabama Basketball and Mississippi State have taken very different paths since the two teams met in late December.
The Crimson Tide has been heading towards winning every game since the matchup. Alabama remains the only team in the SEC undefeated in conference play. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have won just one game since then.
Mississippi State has lost seven of its last eight games. Alabama has won eight times in a row.
And now the Bulldogs will look to go to the Coleman Coliseum and beat the No. 2 Crimson Tide (17-2, 7-0 SEC) on Wednesday (8 p.m. SEC Network).
Alabama won the previous matchup against Mississippi State in Starkville 78-67.
Ahead of the first rematch of the season in conference play for Alabama, here’s a look at the Bulldogs (12-7, 1-6) and how they’re holding up against the Crimson Tide.
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Estimated starting lineup for the state of Mississippi
Guard Dashawn Davis (Senior): 6-foot-2, 195 pounds. Averages: 8.2 points, 1.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.1 blocks, 1.8 turnovers.
Guard Eric Reed (Senior): 6-2, 200 pounds. Average: 5.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.0 blocks, 0.3 turnovers.
Forward DJ Jeffries (Senior): 6-7, 215 pounds. Average: 9 points, 5.9 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.5 blocks, 1.2 turnovers.
Forward Cameron Matthews (Junior): 6-7, 225 pounds. Average: 6.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.8 blocks, 1.4 turnovers.
Center Tolu Smith (Senior): 6 feet 11, 245 pounds. Averages: 13.7 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.6 blocks, 2.5 turnovers.
Smith is Mississippi State’s top player. He is third in the conference for field goal percentage (55.2%) and fifth for rebounds per game (8.1). Still, he didn’t cause much trouble for Alabama in the first matchup. The Crimson Tide limited him to five points and six boards. He shot 1-to-7 from the field.
Mississippi state rotation
The Bulldogs had 11 players this season who averaged 10 or more minutes. Shakeel Moore should see a good time. At 22.1 per game, he’s fifth on the team within minutes. He is one of the best in the SEC at steals at 2.4 per game, which ranks second among all SEC players. Jeffries, Davis and Matthews are all averaging 1.4 steals per game as part of a Mississippi state defense that ranks third in the country in steal percentage, according to KenPom.
How the state of Mississippi stacks up with Alabama on score, defense, and pace
KenPom tracks Adjusted Offense and Defense Efficiency, which are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions. The state of Mississippi is much better on defense than it is on offense. The defensive success is fueled in part by an opportunistic group that can force sales. The Bulldogs defense ranks No. 10 in the country by turnover percentage.
Alabama’s defense could have a big feat, however. It’s one of the best in the country while the state of Mississippi doesn’t have a strong offensive line.
Alabama plays significantly faster than the state of Mississippi. KenPom measures the adjusted pace stat based on the number of possessions per 40 minutes. The Bulldogs are among the slower teams, while Alabama are among the fastest.
Adjusted Offense Efficiency:
State of Mississippi: 104.3 (168th statewide)
Alabama: 115.9 (13th)
Adjusted Defense Efficiency:
State of Mississippi: 91.1 (11th statewide)
Alabama: 88 (5th)
tempo
State of Mississippi: 64 (321st statewide)
Alabama: 73.7 (4th)
Outcome Prediction
Alabama 72, Mississippi 58: As long as Alabama doesn’t turn the ball around a lot, it should win comfortably. Sales haven’t been such a big problem for the Crimson Tide at home lately anyway.