The No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide (15-2) visits the Vanderbilt Commodores (9-8) Tuesday night. Promotion ends at 8:30pm ET. Below we continue our college basketball odds series with an Alabama-Vanderbilt prediction, selection and guide.
Alabama has won six straight games and is 5-0 for first place in the SEC. The Crimson Tide covered 63% of their games while 56% exceeded their predicted total score. Vanderbilt has lost two of their last three games but upset Arkansas to improve to 2-2 and move up to seventh in the SEC. The Commodores covered 47% of their games while completing 59%. Vanderbilt has covered four straight games against Alabama from 2020.
Here are the Alabama-Vanderbilt college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Alabama Vanderbilt Odds
Alabama: -8.5 (-105)
Van derbilt: +8.5 (-115)
Above: 154.5 (-106)
Below: 154.5 (-114)
Here’s how to watch Alabama vs. Vanderbilt
Television: SEC Network
Time: 8:30pm ET / 5:30pm PT
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Alabama could cover the spread
Alabama has quickly established itself as the SEC’s crème de la crème. The Crimson Tide have lost just two games this season — to No. 6 Gonzaga and No. 15 UConn. Alabama performs very well on the advanced metrics as they rank #4 in KenPom and #3 in NET. As such, they amassed a perfect 10-0 record in quads 2, 3 and 4. Her five wins in Quad 1 are the second-highest in the country. Alabama is currently forecast as the No. 1 in the NCAA tournament.
The Crimson Tide represents one of the most explosive offenses in the country, ranking fourth in scoring (84.4 PPG). Alabama loves the three-ball as they rank sixth in three-pointers made per game (10.4 3PM/game). They also do a great job of hitting the free throw line, ranking sixth in free throws taken per game (18.3 FTM/game). Savvy live bettors can take advantage of their incredible second-half numbers as they average the most second-half points in the country (44.5 PPG). Finally, the Crimson Tide are a dominant rebounding team, leading the country in rebounds per game (45.9 RPG) and ranking 14th in rebound rate (54.8%).
Offensively, Alabama relies on two main scorers to fuel their strong offense. They field arguably the best rookie in the country in Brandon Miller. Miller is a favorite for SEC Player of the Year as he leads the conference in scoring (19.5 PPG) while fourth in rebounding (8.2 RPG). He came off one of his best games of the season as he scored 31 points and grabbed nine rebounds in their blowout win over LSU.
Miller doesn’t do it all alone, however, as junior guard Mark Sears averages 15.2 PPG. The Ohio transfer excelled in its first season in the SEC thanks to its incredible outside shooting. Sears averaged 2.4 threes per game while knocking them down with a 41% clip. After a shaky start, Sears really proved itself during conference play, scoring 16+ points in four of its five SEC games.
Why Vanderbilt could cover the spread
Vanderbilt had a season of ups and downs and couldn’t string together much sustained success. Aside from that, the Commodores just defeated then-15th-ranked Arkansas and covered three of their four conference games. However, the advanced metrics do not favor the Commodores as they rank 88th in KenPom and 91st in NET. Vanderbilt has only won 2-7 in Quad 1 and 2 matchups while going 7-1 in Quad 3 and 4 matters. However, they are not currently expected to make the NCAA tournament.
If Vanderbilt does cover tonight, it will likely be thanks to his outside shooting and ability to control color. The Commodores are 79th in threes per game (8.2 3PM/game) but used 10 triples to defeat Arkansas last weekend. They could have an advantage on the offensive glass as they rank 43rd in offensive rebounds allowed (10.5 ORPG) while ‘Bama is ranked 300th in offensive rebounds allowed (9.7 opp. ORPG). The Commodores also do a great job protecting the rim as they are in the top 20 in blocks (5.3 BPG).
These blocks are mostly from Senior Liam Robbins. The 7’0″ tall man ranks second in the SEC in blocks averaging 2.9 BPG. He leads his own team in scoring and rebounding, averaging 13.2 PPG and 5.9 RPG. However, he came off the bench in the win against Arkansas. While still productive, Vandy turned to junior guard Tyrin Lawrence for an offensive lead. Lawrence scored 22 points in their excitement and will likely need another strong performance if they are to cover tonight.
Final Alabama-Vanderbilt prediction and selection
Vanderbilt have been performing well lately and after their biggest win of the season, I expect they will continue their recent winning streak against Alabama.
Final Alabama-Vanderbilt prediction and selection: Vanderbilt +8.5 (-115)