James Spann: Showers for Alabama Tuesday, Wednesday; Thunderstorm possible Wednesday night

RADAR CHECK: We’re seeing some sprinkles on radar in northwest Alabama this afternoon, but most of the state is dry with mid- and high-level clouds increasing. Temperatures are generally in the 60’s. We’ll mention the possibility of showers statewide tonight and Tuesday as a surface front stalls north of the Tennessee border. Rain levels will not be too heavy for the next 36 hours.

WEDNESDAY THURSDAY: Scattered showers are possible on Wednesday but a decent part of the day should be dry and mild, with afternoon temperatures reaching the low 70s, almost 20 degrees above the January average. Then a cold front will drive a series of showers and thunderstorms across the state from Wednesday night through Thursday morning.

The Storm Prediction Center defined a marginal risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe storms for the northwest corner of the state Wednesday night, but no formal risk is currently defined for Thursday morning.

The southward shift from main dynamics coupled with marginal thermodynamics should limit the overall severe potential for Alabama with this system, but should instability levels rise higher than now projected, some severe storm risk might need to be introduced. The main window for the stronger storms will come from midnight Wednesday night through 9am Thursday. Rain levels of about 1 inch are expected.

FRIDAY AND WEEKEND: Friday will be mostly sunny and cooler with highs in the 50s over northern Alabama and 60s in the south. Then the next weather system will bring more rain to Alabama over the weekend. Rainy periods are likely on Saturday and Sunday with highs in the 50’s. Light thunderstorms are possible, but severe storms are not to be feared.

NEXT WEEK: Monday and Tuesday look dry with seasonal temperatures, but more rain is on the way on Wednesday. Highs will be in the 50’s most of the week.

LAST THURSDAY: The National Weather Service has completed its survey work; a total of 14 tornadoes landed over Alabama. The most significant was a long gauge EF-3, which moved over parts of Autauga, Elmore, Coosa, Tallapoosa and Chambers counties. This tornado was responsible for seven deaths northwest of Prattville in Autauga County.

ON THIS DAY IN 2018: A winter storm brought snow to Alabama; the heaviest was along the I-85 corridor in the wide area from Montgomery to Opelika, where amounts of 2 to 4 inches were common.

BEACH FORECAST: Click here to view the AlabamaWx Beach Forecast Center page.

For more weather news and information from James Spann and his team, visit AlabamaWx.